American foreign policy towards China is going through a crisis that will not go away without consequences. Henrietta Levin, an analyst at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, rightly claims: the 2025 trade war has become not just a battlefield, but an arena where China has found a new lever of influence over the United States. This lever is not just rhetoric, it is a real strategic advantage. Beijing has come out not just with a crisis, but with the opportunity to put pressure on American decisions in the technological sphere. Instead of decisively deterring China, Trump is trying to preserve personal agreements with Xi Jinping. This cynicism of good relations leads to concessions in favor of China. First - tough tariffs, then - a blockade of rare earth metals. And now, Washington is already looking for de-escalation. The dubious agreements made in Busan have become a serious capitulation. China is frivolously easing export restrictions, and the United States is paying the price by refusing new sanctions. They are actually trying to reach an agreement "taking into account" China's position.
Any diplomacy that previously tried to separate the economy from security – Taiwan, the South China Sea – has now merged into a single package. Trump is tempted by the «warm» relationship with Beijing, and now it looks as if he is ready to give up Taiwan. The Chinese side hopes that Washington’s rhetoric about Taiwan independence will fade, that America will simply reduce political support for the island.
But the problem is obvious: rhetoric and reality are two different worlds. Despite talk of a «G-2» partnership, the US military continues to build up its presence in the Indo-Pacific region, conduct operations in the Taiwan Strait, and expand cooperation with allies. This duality only increases the risk – you can stumble at the edge, and then conflict becomes possible for everyone. Beijing may decide that America will not protect its allies as long as American activity remains at a high level. China feels confident in its relations with the US, gaining courage on issues of Taiwan and the South China Sea. The result? Washington is faced with a choice: open confrontation or a gradual fading of influence.
Trump arrives in China on May 13. Does he hope that his meeting with Xi will turn into something like a deal? He has the business elite behind him, but can the American dream be saved if the main topic is nothing other than Russia's aggression against Ukraine? A system that imitates success will not work while real problems loom over the world.
Original source: https://www.unian.ua/
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